Nigerians are very worried about their country’s qualification chances for the 2010 World Cup.

One match into the final rounds; a drawn game away from home that should ordinarily have evoked praises but has not; a series of six matches in the first round with a 100% percent record that should have counted as confidence boosters, but have not; two international friendly matches that should have clearly shown how well preparations are going and clearly indicated who’s who in the emerging new Eagles, but did nothing of the sort; different tones of voice from the technical managers of the Nigerian team (coaches, technical committee members, technical committee chairman, even the President of the NFF), the unofficial experts made up of members of the public, even the Senate and the Presidency got talking; all have left the entire country in a jittery state about their darling team, the Super Eagles!

Since the Mozambican match in Maputo several weeks ago the Nigerian football planet has known little peace. Discussions and debates have raged in all media on an almost daily basis as to what can and should be done to earn a place in Africa’s first World Cup. Even before a ball has been kicked signalling start of matches for the championship, many of us had looked into our crystal balls, and reasoned that hosting the world’s most prestigious and most challenging football competition in Africa provides an excellent platform for an African country to win it. We looked at the records and players available to the continent and went ahead to boast that the country with the best chances, the players with the right attitude and spirit to do so first would be a country that has blazed the trail in winning continental trophies even if they were of lesser standard and competition. We reasoned that as morning shows how the rest of the day would be, Nigeria, rather than any other in the continent, would be that country. But as we speak here now, there is the general feeling that we may have spoken too soon, rather recklessly too, and that the picture is not quite the way we were painting it! In fact some of us have been forced already to eat our words, even if only one match in the qualifying series has been played, away from home, against an opposition made up largely of home-based players, played at high altitude and on very unfamiliar artificial turf! In spite of the glaring odds against the team, the Eagles still escaped Maputo without losing! Nigerians, however, will not be consoled with such a result! That’s why we have ended up in the present furore! What is the problem with the Nigerian team? Why is the team not playing well enough to attract confidence of the people? Is the problem that of the team’s coach? Is it the players’ quality and/or their attitude? Is it that of administration? What, really, is the problem? What should Nigeria do to avert the catastrophe of their national team missing out of playing at the World Cup again?

As we speak here today I have read many analyses and commentaries, and listened to many experts on radio and television. My observation is that no one seems to have provided what would be a generally acceptable answer to those questions. The reason for this is simple – of the several options of what to do none seems to provide a foolproof formula acceptable to the generality of Nigerians that guarantees that if certain things are done Nigeria would qualify for the World Cup! There is a lot of noise out there but very little clear sounding notes to calm the nerves. It is, therefore, not surprising that DAAR Communications has raised the Ante and has organised a forum such as this to learn from us, so called experts in the field of qualifying for the world Cup, and to lead the way in providing a foolproof answer. Well, let me be the first to disappoint you all by saying that I am neither an expert nor do I come here with the answers! This game would not be the beautiful game that it is if there were so called experts that can tell you how a team shall play, and guarantee that a team shall win! The game of football has not surrendered its awesome power to any individuals to predict and analyse correctly every time. This beautiful game humbles everyone with its unpredictability. It is not a science with set formulae and laws that will produce the same results if applied the same way every time! The game is still, and forever will remain, an art form, where skills, athleticism, talent, training, preparations, tactical ability of coaches, incentives, team spirit, team psychology, patriotism and crowd support, all add their little bit to the final result. Even then when all the ingredients seem to be complete, one little awkward bounce of the ball could change a whole match and the fate of a team, and render all ‘expert’ predictions and calculations impotent and useless! Football makes a mockery often times of those who claim superior knowledge or wisdom in its affairs.

With this background one cannot but be humble here and once again admit to limitations in terms of asserting what is right or wrong, what will work or not, in this lovely and lively discourse on the present state of Nigerian football in relation to the qualify for the 2010 World Cup. So, the best that I can do here is to examine a few options of my own and put them through some critical tests and analysis to enable the public back the ones that seem reasonable and most practical, and discard and abandon those ones that look impractical and unreasonable. Which ever way, let us all hope that as we go along the gods of football shall smile on us!

So even as I have been invited here to come and discuss what Nigeria can do to ensure that the Super Eagles qualify for the 2010 World Cup, the best I can do is raise the level of discussion using my personal experiences, some statistics, a bit of history, a humble evaluation of the strengths of the teams in the group, the availability and quality of players, the records and experiences of the coaching team, incentives for the players, the psychology of the team, the preparation for individual matches, knowledge of the stadia and turf type, the weather conditions, the altitude of the venue, the available time for preparing the team, the extent of injuries in a team, the fitness and match readiness of players, the quality and preparation of opposition, and so on. The issues and factors are long and varied. Yet they all have a role to play in how the team fares on the night! Football’s complexities are so many that no one, I repeat, no one can claim to know it all, and least of all how any particular match will end with certainty.

Having said all of that, one must also acknowledge that there are some basic factors that can affect how a team plays and can influence success or failure. All teams know this even if no team goes into a match thinking they cannot win it! The formula is to put in place conditions that will assist a team to put up optimum performances that can produce optimum results.

So, what have all these got to do with the Super Eagles and South Africa 2010? I am being very careful here so that I don’t leave the wrong impressions. I do not want to hurt any egos, make enemies of my friends on the strength of views that are not cast in certainty. So, I appeal that these are simply my personal views, and are not the answer to Nigeria’s current football challenges.

My position is this: the Super Eagles must qualify for the World Cup. Nothing else would satisfy me or Nigerians. This is so because since 1994 when the Eagles first went to their first World Cup and returned to the country with a new attitude and a new belief in their strength and capability, particularly in Africa, it has become , indeed , Nigeria’s birth-right to qualify from Africa in every World Cup. It does not matter the process or the opposition the country has had to confront. No excuse for failure is good enough, not even when the opposition is apparently superior! So that’s the place to start from in evaluating Nigeria’s route to the World Cup! Is there a superior opposition in Nigeria’s group? Nigeria has to qualify from a group involving Tunisia, Mozambique and Kenya. We have history, a record of the last matches between the countries, their positions in the global rankings, the results of their last series of meetings, a close assessment of their last matches, the reputation and records of their managers, and the kind of support the teams receive during matches to guide us in making this evaluation! Without wasting much of your time it is clear to all that the greatest challenge shall come from Tunisia. On paper that’s the only team in the group that looks capable of upturning Nigeria’s chances. Without prejudice to the other teams Nigeria must not let Tunisia out of her sight. The practical steps to take are as follows: the Eagles must beat Kenya at home and away and neutralise Tunisia’s initial advantage! Mozambique is a tough nut to crack in Maputo as the Tunisians will also find out. Tunisia will be extremely lucky to escape with a draw as Nigeria did, mark my words! Mozambique must fall heavily here in Nigeria. The two legged match between Nigeria and Tunisia must fetch Nigeria a minimum of three points. That way Nigeria will be in South Africa. Its that simple, at least on paper. But the fear of Tunisia is the beginning of wisdom. Eons ago, when I was a member of the national team, they inflicted a bitter blow on Nigeria’s chances by running away when it was least expected with a one goal victory here in Nigeria. Nigerians have not forgotten. Tunisia have more World Cup experience than Nigeria and indeed than most countries in Africa. That’s why they must be watched with an eagle eye.

But then Nigeria still have to play all the matches and win them, and that’s the source of great worry and the present agitation. The Super Eagles stopped playing well since even before Jay Jay Okocha retired from the national team. Somehow they kept winning some important matches, but then, in the last three outings, including two international friendlies, the team has become worse and has stopped scoring and winning!

What do I think?

Well, like most Nigerians the Super Eagles no longer are the formidable team they were in 1994 and 1998. By 2002 they had lost the edge and had become a shadow of the Super Eagles that created great upsets against some of the great teams of the world, and sometimes almost looked capable of doing everything including going all the way to the finals of the World Cup! In 2006 the decline was at its peak and the country failed to go to the World Cup after a series of bungled matches that left Nigerians infuriated! So elementary were the causes of the failure that Nigerians up till now have not stopped blaming the players for their lackadaisical attitude, the administrators for not considering critical factors about where home matches are to be played, the condition of the grounds, the weather conditions etc in ensuring that the conditions are favourable to the Nigerian players! That failure led to the ouster of Nigeria, the sack of Coach Christian Chukwu and the non-return of Galadima, the Chairman of the NFA.

This is 2009. One year to the 2010 event the Eagles are not playing with the confidence and consistency of a team determined to go to the World Cup and challenge to win it. The team since 2002 has not risen to the heights of 1994 and 1998. That’s the truth. At best the team is living on past glory! The memory of that period in our evolution still makes us take things for granted. But far from it, these present Eagles, the way they are, do not command the same kind of respect and confidence.

So what to do?

The Coach! Is it the coach that needs to be changed at this point? Statistically, Amodu has not done anything to deserve to be sacked. True, his team has not played the best football in recent times. But is that a reflection of the quality of his coaching, or is it a reflection of the lack of the high quality players? Or both? The quality of players is definitely in decline. The team also has not been consistent in its composition. From match to match the choice of players has been very diverse so much so that sometimes as many as six players out of the previous eleven are not fielded from one match to the other. This does not make for good team building which is essential for consistent play, understanding and the development of a team style. So Amodu, for no fault of his really, has not been able to build a solid team. He has made teams from one match to the next depending on who is available from his pool of foreign based players to come and play!

Home-based players for the national team? Rather than sell the idea of injecting home-based players, watchers of Nigerian football should name es of players in the domestic league that deserve to be invited. The truth is that the domestic game is decimated by the endless emigration of the best players that are yet to fully mature! Where are the players?

The Nigerian team today!

Nigeria’s midfield that used to be the engine room of the team has been particularly inconsistent. Any team that does not have a midfield built around a consistent number of players truly never evolves as a team. Since Okocha’s exit the Super Eagles have lost something in that creative area that has not been rediscovered yet.

In attack, most of the players have been fielded based more on their individual reputations from the past or from their performances in their foreign clubs, rather than how their style fits into the Nigerian team. Without question, although Obafemi Martins is a great player in his own right, his style of play does not fit into the Nigerian style. Perhaps where Okocha to still be in the eagles he would have the vision and the passes to release Obagoal from defenders and make him effective. In his absence Obafemi is ineffective. Also take Mikel Obi. He may be Nigeria’s greatest talent at the moment but a correct role has not being found for him yet in the Nigerian team. He goes from defensive midfield to creative and to the ball carrier sometimes. This has made his contributions minimal and when he does not play his absence is hardly felt.

This one interests me greatly. Lionel Messi is a left-footed player. But he plays most of the time from the right side of attack making him one of the greatest challenges for defenders in modern times. Thierry Henry is a right-footed player that plays from the left side of attack. Brazil’s Ronaldinho is another right-footed player that finds effective use on the left side of attack.

In this rather strange observation lies Nigeria’s answer to a lack of strength and depth down its left flank . Jo Bonfrere experimented with Tijani Babangida on the left side and against South Africa (I think) Tijani was a torn in the flesh. It is such inventiveness that separates the boys from the men in coaching! Amodu Shuaibu must demonstrate inventiveness in making a team out of the varying players he continues to assemble. Such clever creativeness is surely missing. That’s why Taiye Taiwo, Nigeria’s left back whose greatest asset, his left shots, is under-utilised. Some creativeness could have released him from his weaker role in defence for a new role where his greatest weapon would have become a major part of Nigeria’s match to match arsenal! There is not another Okocha in the team at the moment so Nigeria must shift from playing the way they played with Jay Jay in the team. A new style must evolve that does not have the hallmark of the slow build up and creative passes of Jay Jay. The players in the team now, from Obinna Nsofor, to Osaze, to Utaka are all athletes, quick, pacy and designed for wing play and the quick counters (recall the negative but effective play of Chelsea against Barcelona). Instead the Eagles play up and down the field as if in slow motion, still passing reminiscent of Okocha’s last days! I am not a coach, but experimenting with some innovative styles and maximum utilisation of players’ strengths would have demonstrated the ability of an astute coach!

Having said that, bringing a foreign coach at this time would not change things drastically. The choice of one that would be acceptable, that would not now be disruptive, with us experts scrutinising and criticising their selection, and distracting the team too much. Nigeria does not have the luxury of time to become conversant with our ways and culture. Like Bora and Berti the results would be catastrophic.

Keep things the way they are? You do not keep doing the same things over and over again if the result they produce are not different. Nigerians would blame themselves if Amodu fails to deliver. So, do we help Amodu by supporting him with some local coaches? A consortium as some people are suggesting? Forget it, that will only bring more distraction and more confusion. So who can support Amodu? Personally, apart from Samson Siasia, I do not see anyone with the knowledge and pedigree to add value to Amodu. But Samson Siasia, unfortunately, has tied himself in a knot by accepting to go to a lower level of coaching after his Olympics experience. He thus abandoned the emerging new Eagles he had been building for five years only to start building a new team of under-20s all over a again. What a waste! My prescription would have been to use Siasia’s team as the fulcrum of the new Eagles and add to that some of the older players for strength, balance and experience. Doing the opposite is what has now happened- injecting into the old Eagles some of Siasia’s team members. You do not pour new wine in old wine bottles! It is not the same I tell you. But I will not dwell on that theorem here. Samson’s injection would be a difficult proposition now. That option is ill-advised now. So what to do with coaching? Perhaps we should wait and see what the next match would present with more the pressure the public is bringing to bear on the coach and the leadership of the NFF. They would listen more. The technical committee also seems to be getting more involved in players’ invitation to the national team. Let me warn about a dangerous development that has been silently festering in Nigeria’s football. Anyone that deals in the sale of players, that acts in the capacity of a player agent, should not come near the technical committee of the NFA or coaching the national team. Knowing Nigerians and how they allow their personal interests to override national interest, having people like that in a committee that determines who is invited and who gets a chance to play is dangerous! Need I say more! That’s why, perhaps John Mastoroude’s influence will temper the effect of this situation. Let us watch how the next match will go! This goes not just for the senior national team but for all the national teams!

Giving how things stand at the moment I would rather we managed the present situation the best way we can than start a wholesome change of technical personnel and players at this time. A subtle adjustment will give us a team that can take us through the next few set of matches and take Nigeria through qualification.

I am confident that the Eagles, with a little bit of tinkering, will surprise all with victories over Tunisia both at home and away! It is what will happen in South Africa in 2010 that I dread. But I guess qualification should be our focus for now. When we get to that next bridge we shall fashion a way to go over it!

Conclusion

I guess I have not provided the answers people seek. The truth is that I don’t have them. I have provided some food for thought though and I hope that we will all not panic and throw away the baby with the bathwater. The present calls for some caution and cool-headedness!

All is not lost I assure you. I am confident that Nigeria shall be in South Africa one way or the other!

Segun Odegbami

May 12, 2009