The title of this article is a repetition of the one I wrote when the African Cup of Nations was about to kick-off some weeks ago.
I had gazed into my AFCON 2012 crystal ball and proclaimed what I saw – a ‘dream final’ between Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire. I believed it then. But as the curtains of the championship are being drawn this weekend in Libreville, Gabon, let me admit that, until the matches of last Wednesday night were concluded, I assumed I was right on target with almost all of my pre-AFCON analysis and predictions. This was more a product of years of personal knowledge of how the teams were likely to play and as assessment of who they would be playing against than any demonstration of a meta-physical display of clairvoyance like ‘Paul’ the famous 2010 World Cup octopus.

Unfortunately, I was caught out by one moment of brilliance, a moment of pure magic. Substitute Zambian forward, Emmanuel Mayuka, had received a pass his back against the Ghanaian goal with hardly any room to do anything with the ball in this tightly packed Ghanaian defence that had been impregnable all night. As he controlled the ball he feinted to go in one direction but swivelled on his heel and moved in the other, and, in one fluid movement, struck the ball with the inside of his right foot in a parabolic ‘banana’ kick that swerved and curved beyond the reach of the Ghanaian goalkeeper helplessly diving in vain as the ball struck the inside of the upright and nestled into the far corner of goal. It was a totally unexpected but beautiful goal that turned my prediction upside down and me into a ‘false’ prophet! It was a goal that broke the back of the Black Stars of Ghana who had looked all night as the team more likely to score and qualify for the final match. That was not to be. Plus, my ‘dream final’ had turned into a nightmare for Ghanaians all over Africa, and a celebration for Zambians such as had not been seen since 1994 when a hurriedly assembled Chipolopolo put the trauma of losing their entire national team members (except Kalusha Bwalya who was not on the flight) in a tragic air crash off the coast of Gabon behind them, played like people possessed, got to the finals of that year’s Nations Cup in Tunisia and put up what has been described as one of the best final matches in the history of the championship. Inspired by the great Kalusha himself they still failed at the last hurdle to surmount the obstacle put in their path by one of the greatest assembly of players Africa has ever seen – the Nigerian Super Eagles of 1994!

Sympathy for the Zambian team of 1994 apart, it would have been most cruel to the game of football if the star-studded Super Eagles had lost to them. Thats why, once again, looking ahead to the match against co-finalists, Cote d’Ivoire, a team loaded to the hilt with a collection of the best African players in Europe at present, one can feel for Zambia that they have done exceedingly well coming this far in the championship but that they may also have reached their terminus. In short, beating Ghana may be Zambia’s trophy, because unlike Ghana, the rampaging frontline of Cote d’Ivoire may tear Zambia’s defence, which showed its weak underbelly against Ghana, into pieces. In the other semi-final match between Mali and Cote d’Ivoire, Mali could have been routed by at least 3 goals in the first 30 minutes but for luck that deserted the Ivoriens. They had hit the crossbar and the upright two times and blown away a few clear chances in front of the Malian goal. True, Zambia are not Mali and their defence line is better organised, but the style of play of southern African teams, of which Zambia are an exponent, fits the style of the best West African teams. More often than not (check the records for confirmation) Zambia will always play well against teams like Nigeria, Ghana, Cameroon and Cote d’Ivoire but will hardly ever win. It is a matter of style. Let me use boxing to illustrate this scientifically unverifiable theorem.

Muhammed Ali knocked out George Foreman in 8 rounds. Foreman knocked out Joe Frazier in 3. By simple mathematical deduction one can assume that Ali would knock out Frazier in one round. Right? Wrong! In the three fights that Ali and Frazier fought, Ali confessed he almost died countering the forward moving, shifting and fighting boxing machine called Joe Frazier. Ali found Frazier the most difficult opponent in his career with Frazier actually winning their first fight. Winning, therefore, is not mathematics. Sometimes winning is a matter of a fighting, or playing style. Frazier’s style is tailor-made for Foreman’s style of boxing. Whereas Foreman’s style is tailor-made for Ali, and Ali’s style suits Frazier. The import of this is that Zambia’s defeat of Ghana was an upset. Under normal circumstances of playing styles Ghana should have won. Even though most analysts agreed they were a dangerous opponent and had played some of the best football up till that match, very few actually thought Zambia would defeat the Black Stars. Ghana had too much individual talent, were higher ranked in the world, looked more mature and well organised, and were from West Africa! For those still wondering what the last statement means check this out. Why does it appear that Nigeria, for example, nine out of ten matches played anywhere in the world at any level, would always defeat South Africa? The answer can be found in the playing-style theorem.

Thats why Zambia’s qualification for the final this time around should be celebrated on its own. Celebrations should not be suspended until the end of the final match as it is unlikely that there will be another upset. The pre-tournament favourites still hold the aces. I believe the final match will be a classic, something to behold in the excitement, quality of football and competitiveness it will generate. The contrasting styles of the two teams will make for a great football spectacle outside of whatever the result may be – the parade of ageing stars in their twilight years on one side, and a set of emerging stars running and fighting endlessly on the other; the amazing display of patient build-ups and passing skills of one side against the fast, hard-tackling and counter-attacking skills on the other. This match would make an excellent case study for students of football. Thats the treat that awaits the world this weekend as Zambia attempt to create history by winning the African Cup of Nations for the first time on one hand, and Cote d’Ivoire attempting to repeat the history set 20 years ago when they won the cup for the first and only time, on the other.
So, who will win AFCON 2012? Crystal ball or not my bet is still on the Elephants to win!